2016 Democratic Presidential Odds

By on March 8, 2012

It’s still very early and it appears a lot will hinge on whether Hillary Clinton decides to make a run at the democratic nomination, but that won’t stop us from attempting to handicap the 2016 election.  Next to each of the candidates below we have listed the current odds on what we believe their chances are to win 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.  Feel free to debate the odds we have listed or let us know which candidate you would bet on in the comments section.

Updated 2/01/2013

Candidate Odds
Hillary Clinton 5/1
Joe Biden 8/1
Andrew Cuomo 12/1
Rahm Emmanuel 15/1
Evan Bayh 15/1
Martin O’Malley 15/1
Tim Kaine 15/1
Mark Warner 18/1
Elizabeth Warren 20/1
Dennis Kucinich 20/1
Amy Klobuchar 20/1
Jim Webb 25/1
Brian Schweitzer 25/1
Sherrod Brown 30/1
Kathleen Sebelius 30/1
Claire McCaskill 30/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 35/1
Bob Casey, Jr. 35/1
Janet Napolitano 40/1
Ken Salazar 50/1
Kay Hagan 50/1
John Tester 50/1
Harold Ford, Jr. 100/1
Bill Ritter 100/1
Al Sharpton 150/1
Jack Reed 150/1
Al Gore 200/1
Al Franken 200/1
Michelle Obama 500/1
Field 12/1

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  • Patrick Pepper

    No great surprise to see you’ve put Hillary Clinton topping your list, but will she be too old in ’16? At 69, if victorious in November of that year, she would equal Reagan’s record as the oldest president on election to a first term, and the Democrats in particular have no modern tradition of nominating first-time candidates anywhere near such an age. It’s a perhaps little known fact that in more than the last 130 years, only two Democratic nominees have fought their first presidential campaign over the age of 60 – Truman in 1948 (age 64) and Kerry in 2004 (age 61) and of those only Kerry was seeking a first term, albeit that Truman was seeking his first elected term. No Democrat over the age of 60 who was not already president has been elected as a neophyte nominee since Buchanan in 1856.
    The only possible logic for placing Joe Biden second on your list can surely be the grim possibility, one that even he himself will hope does not arise, that he might succeed to the presidency beforehand. Otherwise, at age 74 in 2016, all the above will apply to the current veep with bells on.

  • http://none Ali

    please run for president hillary! I want you as our president. I am a big fan of yours.

  • James

    Seriously, it’s probably because I’m a progressive, but none of these people really yell, “Choose me!” besides Franken and Kucinich, and maybe O’Malley, as I like what I’m reading about him. I’ll need to learn about the rest, but to be frank, it seems like a moderate field.

    • Harry

      O’Malley’s pretty moderate. I like Kucinich, but he can’t win a general election (someone with his politics could, but he personally can’t), and though I like Franken, he’s significantly to my right. Everyone on the list is to my right, but still. I think that besides Kucinich, the progressive on the list is Sherrod Brown. I’m a really big fan of his. He’s a big economic populist, and is also very left-wing on social issues.

      • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

        Kucinich could not win a primary, forget the general

  • Tomsim74

    O’malley would be a disaster. Terrible mayor awful governor, coming from a md democrat.

  • NJDem

    Biden’s heading into the sunset, other than that, I LOOOOOVE Hillary

  • Jacob

    I will be voting for president in 2016, because I will finally be 18. I will be saddened if Joe is our nominee (for the democratic party) because, even though he personally seems nice, he is slightly racist to Indians and he has some questionable positions, quite a few gaffes, and he has a hard time with electability, just like Mitt Romney right now. Hillary will not run, she doesn’t want to get involved in politics, as she has said in various interviews. I believe that Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Deval Patrick, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’ Malley, Kay Hagan and if she wins the senate seat in November, Elizabeth Warren, and there is a slight possibility of Chris Matthews, Al Sharpton, and Rachel Maddow (all MSNBC hosts) running in 2016. If one of them were to run, It would most likely be Al Sharpton.

    • Conservative

      You realize that Warren is having a tough time in the most liberal state in the country

    • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

      Chris Matthews? Chris Matthews? I’m sorry, he would not run if you lived to be a million and 18 years old. Not a chance. The GOP will have a black president before that happens and by that, I mean….. NEVER

  • Malik

    2016 will be my first election, and quite frankly I believe to win, Democrats are going to have to go to the libertarian middle to win against the GOP. So suggest a Cuomo-Schweitzer ticket. Two highly popular governors, both social liberals and fiscal conservatives. Clinton and Biden are too old; Warner, Kaine and Bayh are too conservative; and O’Malley is too inexperienced and not a very dynamic speaker.

  • politisplosion

    I see a 2016 ticket with omalley and cuomo in either role on the ticket. if he works on his charisma, omalley might get the top spot. but otherwise, that would go to cuomo.

  • Jordan

    I know he’s a long shot, but there’s talk of Newark Mayor, Cory Booker running.

  • JT

    If you’re including Michelle Obama, why not include Gabby Giffords? Sure, the AZ Senate seems more likely, but who knows?

  • Clay Dreslough

    You should add Michael Bennet (http://www.bennet.senate.gov/about/).

    Also, if Elizabeth Warren (New England Senate candidate) is on this list, Chris Murphy should be too.

  • Cameron

    I would bet money that Debbie Wasserman Schultz will run in 2016!

  • jim hannon

    Clinton is the front-runner if she wants to run. O’Malley is primed and has a lot of support. Schweitzer and Cuomo are in the mix. I thought Warner would want it but he’s been very low-profile–that could change.

    Brown and Gillibrand are the other senator possibilities. Gillibrand is being groomed.

    Some of the others listed are preposterous. And it’s ridiculous to leave Deval Patrick off the list.

    • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

      Booker…not a chance, talented, but the only person in the country that can go from mayor to plausible President is Bloomberg in NYC. Besides, Christie will defeat Booker in the Gov’s race in 2013.

  • Pete Smith

    Current Democratic Polls if these candidates run based on 09/20/2012

    IOWA – Clinton 26%, Biden 19%, Cuomo 11%, Booker 8%,
    Emmanuel 6%, Sebelius 6%, Villaraigosa 4%,
    Schweitzer 4%, Warren 4%, O’Malley 3.5%,
    Gillibrand 3%, Klobuchar 3%, Kaine 2%,
    Patrick 0.5%

    NEW HAMPS – Clinton 20%, Biden 18%, Cuomo 16%,
    Patrick 11%, Warren 10%, Booker 4%,
    Emmanuel 4%, Sebelius 3%, Gillibrand 3%,
    Klobuchar 3%, Villaraigosa 2%, Kaine 2%,
    O’Malley 2%, Schweitzer 2%,

  • Erika

    Have there ever been candidates that ran twice for the nomination…and won?

    • Some Guy

      Reagan lost the nomination in 1976 but became president four years later.

      • Andrew

        Nixon lost the general in 60 to JFK but came back in 68 and won, I’d have never have let George Wallace near the party again after splitting the vote in 68.

      • Somebody

        Actually, Wallace’s votes came from Nixon supporters. Had he not run, Nixon would’ve won in a landslide.

  • Andrew

    I wouldn’t surprise if Clinton and Palin running for Democratic and Republican candidate but I would be surprised if Michelle Obama running for presidential candidate!

    • Conservative

      I would be shocked if Clinton ran and there is no chance Palin gets the nomination

      • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

        Surprised…maybe…but Shocked? No, a Clinton candidacy would not shock me, the nomination is hers if she wants it. And then it’s a 50/50 shot.

    • Brittany

      You gotta be kidding me Michelle Obama as a candidate for president? That means we would Obama as president for twelve years. Should start packing and move to another country if this happens.

      • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

        promises mean nothing, if you need help packing…………

      • Logical Liberal

        Why wait? We’ll help you pack now!

  • Jeff

    My guess is Eliot Spitzer.

  • John

    I would love to see a ticket with Martin O’Malley and Julian Castro! Although, I think in order for us to have a strong ticket, Cuomo will need to be on there.

  • Jackson B Monterey

    I see Tim Kaine / Deval Patrick as the most attractive option, or Tim Kaine / Antonio Villaraigosa.

    • Ian K

      Antonio Villaraigosa would lose. People here in Los Angeles dont like him.

      Clinton/Cuomo is the most attractive option. Cuomo seems moderate

      • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

        Los Angeles does not have to like him in a primary or general. In a general, California is going to vote for the Dem…Period. And in the primary, his only challenge for CA would be Clinton, all others fail.

  • Luis

    I would add Julián Castro, Deval Patrick and Kirsten Gillibrand to the list. Hillary would be great, but I don’t think she has the mojo, and her age would be an issue. Mark Warner would probably be the candidate with greatest possibilities, especially if he includes one of the three mentioned above as his running mate.

  • Anonymous

    I voted for Obama this year as a first time voter, though I consider myself relatively independent. If it was between Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul, I think I could live with either. I know that because of their age and personal reasons that it is unlikely that they will run, but all the same I think that they’d be pretty good candidates. I like Joe Biden, but he would never get the seal of approval because of his age and tendency to shout “Malarkey!”. It’s still far too early to know.

    • Anonymous

      P.S., It would REALLY be interesting if Michelle Obama ran, but that’s also unlikely. Maybe Klobuchar, but that’s the MN voter in me talking.

      • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

        unlikely? I think that it is more likely that George Washington walks out of the grave and wins the nomination in 2016.

  • mike kotts

    Well, it’s just really hard to see who will emerge. With Obama gone the democrats will have really big shoes to fill, plus it will be hard to win that 3rd term (although Bush 41 did it after Reagan). First I do not see Biden getting the nod. Most Democrats want Hillary, but I think she missed the boat in 2008. If she got nominated now, I think the Democrats lose big time as the GOP base will be energized to defeat her. I think depending on how the next 2 years go Elizabeth Warren could be an outside chance of running that would have a shot at winning. Aside from that Deval Patrick if he got the nod could win to given how the electorate voted this year, however if Marco Rubio got the nod for the GOP Patrick could have a tought time. Aside from that none of the other Democrats really stand out as of yet and perhaps another known or unknown could step up too. Just way too early to say.

    • Christophe D

      do you really think America will elect 2 consecutive African American presidents? You’re a real optimist about America. I can’t share your optimism. The next president, whether it be a woman or a man, will not be an African American. Maybe Latino. Maybe!!

  • Karen Senior

    Someone mentioned Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Now THAT’s interesting. Jewish, female, good Democrat. VP ticket? Possible. I love Joe but I’d be a wreck every time he opened his mouth. I do like Hillary and NO, I don’t think she’d be too old. However, the Reps would be all prepared for her (they’re probably prepping right now). Hillary with Obama’s Election Team of David Axelrod and David Pflouffe. Her foreign affairs experience, appeals to middle class, Dem women in the bag. Dynamite but depends on where the country is at that time. I suspect Reps would put up Rubio. Dems will probably put up Hillary or Cuomo. How about a Hillary/Wasserman Schultz ticket. Power women ticket. JMHO.

    • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

      Rubio does NOTHING for the R’s in regards to the Latino vote outside of Florida. He is a Cuban-American and that does not play well with Latino’s from South America and Mexico. A far wiser choice would be Gov. Susan Martinez. As for the D’s it will be Hillary or there will be a Republican President in 2016. Period

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003407151870 Nikita

        Ironic. He gives SUNY a clean bill of health while coemndning state schools of OTHER states and private schools in and outside NYS claiming he found no wrongdoing by SUNY officials. THEN he admits he COULDN’T investigate SUNY for any allegations because to do so would be a conflict of interest’ Typical. I’ll bet he’d find nothing wrong with Spitzer’s banking but the FBI did. If NYS’ AG and the US Attorney refuse to investigate SUNY’s crimes against students who will?

    • Christophe D

      the thought is nice but totally unrealistic. No major party will put 2 women on the same ticket. That’s just not going to happen.

  • chris

    Hillary.

    Her natal chart reflects she will run and win.

  • Ian K

    i would definitely vote a Clinton/Cuomo ticket. Based on polls Hillary is the most popular Democrat presidential candidate in 2016. I hope she runs. We need to make history again. 2008-1st black president, 2016-1st woman president

    • Somebody

      The problem here is that Clinton and Cuomo are both New Yorkers, and the Constitution requires the president and veep represent different states.

  • backuppunter

    The dems will have a tough time in 2016 even if the economy is rosy as can be. I think Jay Nixon, a very moderate missouri gov who is popular with some republicans, should have some odds, maybe 40/1. but maybe he is more VP material.

    • Christophe D

      maybe if people hear about him, but who has outside of MO? Nobody.

    • Somebody

      A moderate can’t win the Republican nomination.

  • Victoria

    Cuomo?? Are you guys serious. He cant even mange the power company. How can he run a county! Get real.

  • http://Yahoo Granny 57

    I don’t think Clinton will run she claims that she is tired and ready to retire that is so true she does look tired

    • http://trentonjordan@ymail.com Trenton

      she looks tired NOW…and she should. But in 2 years? And with Bill whispering in her ear. run run run. And remember, Clinton, unlike any others, can afford to wait to announce. She has the money, organization, resume, and gravitas. If not her….then we will have a Republican in the WH imo

  • Dan

    I name I haven’t seen is Russ Feingold. He is a solid progressive with name recognition.

  • Andrew

    All the talk of a Cuomo/Clinton ticket whichever way round is way off the mark, there is no way any sane political party will pick it’s Presidential and VP candidate from the same state that’d be electoral suicide espically with such a Dem leaning state as New York. For me Mark Warner has looked a shoe in to run since he won his senate seat in 2008, he either got extremely lucky or foresaw the future when pulling out of the 08 race long before it even began. Beyond Warner, Bayh will probably run, Kaine won’t run if Warner does, Cuomo is likely to run and God only knows with O’Malley. Brown is an intersting case Ohio is swing state and Brown would have an advantage there. However Warren has done the hard yards as an incredibly popular governor back when Virginia was a republican state and he’s not caused havoc in the senate so he won’t have annoyed minorities. He’s not my cup of tea but rather him than Rubio or Bush, if you want my ideal candidate Michelle Obama now that would be lighting it up!

  • http://www.earthlink.net 123456789

    Hilary Clinton, Joe Biden and a couple other rnt even going to try. And Michele Obama?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Who made up this list? Obama himself?

    • Somebody

      If you don’t think Hillary’s going to try, you’re crazy.

  • Carlos

    I think strong women candidates for VP would be Kathleen Sebelius or Kirsten Gillibrand. I’m from Kansas, and know Sebelius did a great job while she was our governor. She is moderate, but helped lay the ground work for probably the most important legislation of Obama’s presidency, The Affordable Care Act. Depending on if people actually start to view Obamacare as a good thing, then people might really latch on to Sebelius, a moderate, midwestern Democrat. Gillibrand is youthful and full of good ideas. She could represent the women we need to win (35-50 years old). As for the top spot, I think anyone from Ohio or Florida would be a good pick. Let’s be honest, it’s a numbers game, and you need one of those two big swing states to come through for you if you want to win. Brown (OH) or Wasserman Shultz (FL)?

    • Christophe D

      I agree with you about Gillibrand. She’s youthful and she would fight for progressive values. Carrying NY is just not enough though. Can she carry Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Florida? Maybe. Depends on how the next 4 years unfolds. If the democrats can demonstrate they’re leadership is effective they can get 3 straight, but there are too many outside factors to come to any conclusions yet.

  • Carlos

    Also Evan Bayh of Indiana. He gives us a chance to turn Indiana back into a blue state, and also more than likely lock down Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia. And the guy just looks like a president!

    • Logical Liberal

      If not Hillary, then he’s the on I want. Otherwise, make him her running mate. It’s the strongest possible ticket we have.

  • first-time-voter2016

    I would love, absolutely LOVE, to see Julian Castro as our VP pick. I don’t think he will be quite ready for the presidency yet, but maybe in 2020 or 2024. I could be wrong on that though. For the top spot, I have a few ideas. Hillary Clinton would probably be the front runner if she runs. I’m a little worried though, because she will be pushing seventy in 2016, and the Republicans have had nearly a decade to prepare for her. But, I think her stepping down from the position of Secretary of State was a sign of her aspirations to run in 2016. Andrew Cuomo is another one high on my list. I feel he has done great things for the state of New York, and would be able to continue that on a national level. In my mind, Cuomo would definately be the front runner if Clinton does not run. I also wouldn’t mind seeing Martin O’Malley or Deval Patrick make a run. Personally, I don’t think they would be able to win the nomination if Clinton or Cuomo ran, but you never know. They would also make good VP picks. I really hope Joe Biden isn’t our nominee though. Nothing against him, but I have just never been a huge fan of his.

  • http://www.11082016.com Eddie

    Good info. I don’t see Beau Biden, but I guess his dad gets to try first. 11082016.com is another 2016 site.

  • Thomas

    I seriously think Clinton is going to run. She is going to take a year off and stay away from the media. Then in 2014, she will release a best selling book to reintroduce herself to the public. People will be talking about her more and more. More polls will conclude that she’s still the frontrunner. I would say that she will announce her run for the Presidency in Spring of 2015. She will probably not enter as early as some of the other possible candidates but when she does, the money, endorsements, and polls will all be in her favor. I assume the nomination will be hers by Super Tuesday. After that, she’ll begin compaiging for the general election. The Republicans will probably nominate some far right candidate. With the demographics shifting in the Democrats favor, I assume she wins in November 2016 by at least 9 points.

    • Somebody

      Maybe not 9 points, but this is basically what I see happening, as long as Hillary’s health holds up for the next 4 years.

  • Barry Bradford

    I am surprised to see Kay Hagan (who has a tough reelection brewing) above Amy Klobuchar, who is immensely popular in her home state and raises tons of money. Evan Bayh would be a terrific choice.

  • Cattman

    I think Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe should be added to the list. He’s a reasonably moderate to liberal candidate who would have appeal in the south and border states. Clinton is definitely number one though, followed by Bayh.

  • Logical Liberal

    Clinton’s the clear front-runner. She’s well known, and she has the nomination locked up should she run. She also holds the advantage of being the most popular politician in the nation, so that can be helpful. For vice president, I’d like Evan Bayh. He can get us Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa.

  • http://www.facebook.com/charlene.young.739 Charlene Young

    OMG Biden, God kill me now.