2016 Presidential Election Polls

3
47105

2016Election.com gets over 120,000 pageviews every month. And many of those visitors have voted for the candidate they prefer in the polls below. We close the polls every few days (and re-open new polls on the home page) so that we can get a snapshot of how voter sentiment changes over time.

 

May 31 2016

Hillary seems to have this thing wrapped up, but don’t tell that to the 1,700+ people who voted in our poll.

May 3 2016

Cruz Drops Out

If you’ve been following our polls the past few weeks (the most recent of which is below), you won’t be surprised by the news tonight – Cruz has been lagging way behind Kasich. Polling at 26%, he erased any gains he had made against Trump since January. New Republican polls are live on the home page, let’s see if Kasich can gain some ground heading into the convention.

March 31 2016

The Turning Point?

Trump made some pretty interesting comments about abortion, which seem to be impacting polling numbers. We paused the home page polls today to see what (if any) impact they have on Cruz and Kasich’s numbers.

March 15 2016

We reset the Republican poll on the Ides of March to see what impact Super Tuesday II has on the voting. All eyes will be on Ohio and Floriday today to see if Kasich and Rubio can win their home states. Kasich had a pretty good showing the past 7 days in the poll below, beating Rubio for 3rd place.

 

March 4 2016

Ben Carson dropped out of the race-ish, kind of, maybe not entirely? Regardless, we’ve removed him from the main Republican poll and our odds calculations. The last poll with him included is below. Let’s see which candidate gains those voters…

 

March 2 2016

The morning after Super Tuesday, Trump seems to be climbing again – rebounding from a short surge from Rubio. New polls are up on the home page.

5:00PM ET March 1 2016 – Super Tuesday

Well, look at that. Rubio has pulled ahead in our poll as of 5PM on Tuesday (screen shot below). It’s only 250 people, and we’ve seen those polls swing significantly over a few hours – so check back later tonight to see if Rubio is still in the lead.

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 5.03.12 PM

February 29 2016

On the day before Super Tuesday, we reset the polls to get a fresh look at how our polls reflect what happens in the 11 states that have primaries. Check the home page tomorrow throughout the day to see if things have changed.

Personally, I’m also curious if John Oliver’s Trump video has any impact on voter sentiment tomorrow. Do you think anything Oliver said will impact Trump supporters once they are in the booth? Yeah… I don’t think so either. 2.5 million people have already watched the video today, but something tells me the people who watch John Oliver aren’t exactly in Trump’s base.

Over the past few days, Kasich’s numbers have remained steady – right around 12%. It looks like Bush voters have thrown their support behind Rubio, who jumped from 16% – 18% the past few months to a massive 29%. For reference, 29% is the highest any non-Trump candidate has polled since we started tracking results. Trump himself was polling at 29% back in October.

We’ll probably close the home page polls late on Tuesday night so we can get about 36 hours of voting in. See you then.

February 22 2016

Having won South Carolina, Trump now has a commanding lead in the republican primaries, and has maintained his position at the top of our polls. Rubio and Cruz continue to fight for 2nd place, and Carson and Kasich battle for 3rd. Interestingly, the distance between the 2nd and 3rd place candidates has decreased since early February. Back then, Rubio/Cruz were in the mid-teens and Carson/Kasich were in the single digits. Now, they are all polling in the teens, with only 6 percentage points separating Rubio and Kasich.

Since Jeb has suspended his campaign, we’ve reset the poll on the home page, and archived the latest results below – the last poll that will include Bush, unless he is chosen as a running mate…

We’re particularly interested to see what happens to Kasich’s numbers now that Jeb is out.

February 10 2016

Following the New Hampshire primaries, we thought it would be interesting to reset the polls – specifically to see if Kasich gets a bump from his 2nd place finish. In the days since Iowa, Kasich’s numbers went from 4% to 7%. And if you scroll down to the January and December polls, you can see his numbers hovered around 2% to 3% – so a bump to 7% was a significant move for the Ohio Governor.

Sanders was always leading in this site’s polls, so the New Hampshire results doesn’t surprise any of us.

You can vote on the new polls back on the home page.

February 1 2016

Pausing both polls heading into the Iowa caucuses today (and re-launched new ones on the home page). Not a lot of movement since mid-January. The only notable change is that Bernie Sanders’ numbers were the lowest they’ve been since last August. Check back in a few days to see if the Iowa results shake any of the polls up.

January 14 2016

After the latest GOP debate, Trump still seems to be holding strong – getting twice as many votes as Rubio. As candidates begin to drop out of the race, it will be interesting to see how Trump fares against a smaller field.

December 8 2015

We decided to close both the Republican and Democratic polls today, based entirely on Donald Trump’s audacious recommendation that we stop allowing any Muslims from entering the country.

As you can see below, as of this afternoon, Trump still had a commanding lead over his Republican competition.

Check back on the home page to see how the most recent polls are shaking out. A few days later, perhaps not surprisingly, he still holds the lead.

October 15 2015

Shortly after the Democratic Presidential debate, we closed both polls. It looks like Hillary lost voters to Webb, Chafee, and O’Malley – while Bernie Sanders held strong.

On the Republican side, Trump has regained the ground he lost after the last debate – and Carson, Fiorina, Bush, and Rubio continue to jockey for 2nd – 5th place. It’s worth pointing out that Kasich seems to have lost a bit of ground in the past few weeks, falling to 8th after Ted Cruz.

 

September 17 2015

During the 2nd Republican debate, Carly’s poll numbers surged ahead of Trump’s for the first time since Trump entered the race.

Here is what the poll looked like at 10:30PM ET on Wednesday September 16th (right at the end of the debate). You can see Carly Fiorina was beating trump during the debate.
fiorina-trumps-trump

Here at 2016election.com, we thought it was just an anomaly, but we kept this poll open throughout the day of the debate and today (the day after), and Carly Fiorina has held her ground against Trump. As of 11PM ET Thursday night, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump are tied in the polls.

If you scroll down to the polls below, you’ll see that the results from this site are often a leading indicator of what you will see in the national polls 1-3 weeks later. We suspect that most of the national polls (in the coming weeks) will show Fiorina with significant gains after this debate.

This is what the poll results were as of 11PM ET on Thursday September 17th.

September 16 2015

These polls were closed right before the 2nd Republican Debate. National polls have started to show Ben Carson gaining a lot of ground on Donald Trump. As always, the data from our polls showed that starting weeks ago. On the Democratic side, 2016election.com has always shown Bernie Sanders above Hillary Clinton, and just recently all of the major news outlets started announcing that he is leading Clinton in many of the early states. Check back later this week to see if the polling has changed after the 2nd Republican Debate.

August 14 2015

This poll, related to the Republican debate a week earlier, showed that Ben Carson was viewed to be the winner, with Donald Trump close behind. Also interesting was John Kasich’s performance. As the most recently announced candidate, he had a strong showing in the debate – coming in 4th, between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

August 6 2015

These polls were closed right before the 1st Republican Debate so that we could get a good sense of where the candidates stand before and after the debate. Also, the Democratic poll started to show Bernie Sanders gaining a lot of ground on Clinton. Once again showing that the polls here are a leading indicator of what happens happens weeks later in mainstream media polls.

JULY 15 2015

This Republican poll was closed on July 15th to make room for Scott Walker. The same day it was closed, national news outlets echoed what 2016election.com had shown a week earlier – that Trump was leading the way. Could votes cast on 2016election.com be an early indicator of what will show up in Gallop/AP/etc. polls?

JULY 6 2015

These polls show Bernie Sanders and Ben Carson with significant leads over Hillary Clinton and Republican front-runners. Although, voting for these polls opened before some Republican candidates had declared their candidacy. The newest polls are open for voting on the home page.

  • Martin Hauser

    Online polls notoriously biased. National polls and Iowa polls post-debate have Trumps support declining to 17-22% pragmaticliberalism.com

  • meir34

    Trump’s foreign policy positions tonight best improve on 24 hrs of study and finding his own MacArthur. Mac disobeyed orders from his Commander-in-chief and was relieved of command. He might want a better role model. pragmaticliberalism.com

  • meir34

    New polls analysis suggest Trump’s campaign peaking. @ pragmaticliberalism.com