These rankings project the likelihood of each candidate to receive the 2016 Republican Party Presidential nomination. Especially for primary elections, endorsements by sitting governors, senators and republicans have historically been a strong indicator of a candidate’s influence amongst party loyals. Primary polls are useful too, but too variable to use in isolation, so our weighted model evaluates the candidates based on both.

Updated March 29th 2016

REPUBLICANS

Rank 2016 Power Composite Rank (PCR) % Change in PCR Candidate Notes
1 30.88 +104.5% Cruz As the odds of a brokered convention improve, so do the odds of Cruz ascending as consensus RNC candidate.
2 25.12 +42.1% Trump Consistently leading in the polls and delegate count, but this isn’t over by a long-shot. The Rubio drop bolstered Cruz and Kasich, making a brokered convention (and Trump Independent candidacy) a real possibility.
3 15.08 +52% Kasich Forget the media, there’s a reason the governor is in it for the long-haul…the vast majority of sitting conservatives have yet to line up behind any candidate.
Rubio Suspended campaign
Carson Suspended campaign
Fiorina Suspended campaign
Christie Suspended campaign
Paul Suspended campaign
Huckabee Suspended campaign
Bush Suspended campaign

DEMOCRATS

Rank 2016 Power Composite Rank (PCR) % Change in PCR Candidate Notes
1 (-) 59.12 -7.05% Clinton It’s pretty obvious now that Clinton underestimated Sanders coming into primary season.  Her lead in our PCR is waning, but we estimate she has about a 92% chance of winning.
2 (-) 40.88 +6.5% Sanders Essentially tying Clinton in Iowa and handily defeating her in New Hampshire has shown that Sanders has a real chance of competing for the nomination.

 

  • Bartek

    You have Santorum and tou have not Pence or Martinez here? Wtf?

    • Cindy

      Really you have to be joking “Pence” ?

  • Tyra Bendick

    i will vote republican unless they have taken a stance against the constitution standup for our country and ill standup for you. according to gallup liberals are the smallest demographic 20% and falling in america conservatives 40% are the largest and growing also moderates 35% they have also been falling

  • Has O’Malley moved up in ranking? If you heard the story of Marcus and Malley you would not even include him on the list. It shows lying, anti-Jewish; devaluing of human life if senior; no respect for women’s rights and safety especially in the issue of rape. He lets the rapist walk free; all of them. IM Yahoo robuckps for details from Patty Sears witness and victim remember O’Malley shook my hand before tv cameras promising to protect MARCUS PENN but did nothing. MARCUS PENN DEAD tortured murdered; see what O’Malley’s promises are worth?

  • Alex Turner

    People need to start talking about Howard Dean for the Dems. He’s been labeled a radical liberal but all of his divisive policies were social issues that are now both the norm and considered poisonous to talk about for the GOP. Under Dean, Vermont had the best education and healthcare in the country while balancing the budget 11 out of 12 years.

  • Nancy Harrington

    Seriously DONALD TRUMP and MITT ROMNEY!

  • David Lewis Burnworth

    IF AMERICA is stupid to put in another REP OR DEM THEN SHE DESERVES ALL OF THE BAD THRWON HER WAY

    • Paul

      Go Trump !

  • Rick Leergun

    Chuck Norris. Period. No VP.

  • eph4_15

    This list is SERIOUSLY OUTDATED & I am sure it was poorly informed when it was compiled.

    Conservatives are looking for something more like this:

    Top Tier Ted Cruz – Bobby Jindal – Allen West – Rick Santorum

    Second Tier Rand Paul – Scott Walker – Rick Perry

    Nobody with sense wants a LIAR
    [Eliminates Rubio, Jeb, Graham, Christie, Huckabee, Kasich & Romney]

    Or a Flip-Flopper [Again Cuts out Romney & Huckabee]

    Or a Big Government RINO
    [Cut Jeb, Ryan, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Christie, Romney]

    Or a Newbie [Kick out Fiorina, Carson &Trump]

    Who wants Weak Families & a Weak Society?
    [Axe Rubio, Jeb, Romney, Graham, Kasich, Walker, Huckabee, Trump, Christie & Rand]

    Amnesty anyone? [Drop Rubio, Romney, Jeb, Rand, Walker, Kasich, Christie, Huckabee, Ryan, Carson or Fiorina]

    Overzealous Military? [Lose Jeb, Romney, Christie, Huckabee]

    Weak Military?
    [Dump Carson, Graham, Kasich, Rand, Fiorina, Rubio, Ryan & Rubio]

    Getting the picture?

    • Paul

      President Trump ! Make America #1 AGAIN !

  • Alauda Trevor

    How can anyone consider Walker? He makes Dan Quayle look smart. He wants to borrow a billion dollars just for WI. He would be the least educated of anyone running. At this point, he wouldn’t carry his own state.

  • Paul

    AS usual typical Bullshizz ! Trump is gaining ground and NOW #2

  • Vinman

    Too lazy to update?

  • Troy Withrow

    Looks like this is a load of bull%$#! I’m having a hard time getting how anyone could actually value any of this crap when it doesn’t include the overall front runner since shortly after putting his chips in the pot!?!? You put Clinton up as the “Overwhelming leader” when SHE SHOULD ALREADY BE IN JAIL OR AT LEAST ON TRIAL for one of her many scandals? Personally I think she should be up on Treason charges with Obama but the “Lying to federal investigators, Withholding & Tamper with evidence should be a pretty open & shut case… Just the fact that she is even running for president in the shadows of that & the Bengazi dealings SCREAMS CORRUPTION!!! Anybody with a small fraction of a brain SHOULDN’T BE WILLING TO TRUST HILARY OR ANYONE BACKING HER… Because if they are still pushing for her THEY ARE EXTREMELY SUSPECT IN MY BOOK! I’m betting they’ve already bought her & just don’t want or can’t afford to lose those Huge Investments! If Hillary even makes it to end of the election it’ll be a clear (Well CLEARER) sign of the corruption she’s involved in… BUT IF SHE WINS OR EVEN COMES CLOSE, WE WILL ALL KNOW JUST HOW CORRUPT OUR GOVERNMENT HAS BECOME & IT’LL BE A CLEAR SIGN THAT “VOTING” WILL NO LONGER BE THE COARSE OF ACTION AVAILABLE TO “WE THE PEOPLE” FOR THE PROTECTION OF OUR RIGHTS!!
    ******* TRUMP 2016!!! ***** MAKE OUR COUNTRY GREAT AGAIN ******* TRUMP 2016!! *******

  • Billy S DuBose

    Your ,almost, native son , Ted Cruz, has been a bad boy! Lying, steeling votes, and ,according to Tx. rules, what’s even worse, he GOT CAUGHT DOING IT! ha! Time to change candidates and do something truly good for our whole country, including yourselves! Trump will make America great again! He will handle the illegal alien problem , and will tame the borders. He is for saving your/our 2nd Amendment Rights; he is for the military; he is for Vets.; for Sr. Citizens; and his political tactics will have a much less impact on fixed income folks,and may very well, improve them. Trump is putting Americans ,first! Trump will improve our medical coverages and medicine costs. Time to think of your biggest interests…..your many military installations, and the money Trump will pour into them, not to mention your many Veterans receiving better paying benefits. I lived in Texas for 3 years , working at Lackland AFB, but stationed out of Brooks AFB. I am well aware of San Antonio, and it’s beauty! My wife and I, loved living there, and I had family there. I truly believe Trump is the man you all need to back! Side-winder Ted is a goner, politically! Make a huge difference in the course of this campaign, and make an investment in your own futures…………vote Trump! He is standing up for “WE The People” on his own, and with the GOP, DNC, and media ,all against him. He needs our help! He will be a huge asset in rebuilding the American economy! Thank you! …https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg22rjzYo4w