Opinion

2016 Presidential Power Rankings

These rankings project the likelihood of each candidate to receive the 2016 Republican Party Presidential nomination. Especially for primary elections, endorsements by sitting governors, senators and republicans have historically been a strong indicator of a candidate’s influence amongst party loyals. Primary polls are useful too, but too variable to use in isolation, so our weighted model evaluates the candidates based on both.

Updated March 29th 2016

REPUBLICANS

Rank 2016 Power Composite Rank (PCR) % Change in PCR Candidate Notes
1 30.88 +104.5% Cruz As the odds of a brokered convention improve, so do the odds of Cruz ascending as consensus RNC candidate.
2 25.12 +42.1% Trump Consistently leading in the polls and delegate count, but this isn’t over by a long-shot. The Rubio drop bolstered Cruz and Kasich, making a brokered convention (and Trump Independent candidacy) a real possibility.
3 15.08 +52% Kasich Forget the media, there’s a reason the governor is in it for the long-haul…the vast majority of sitting conservatives have yet to line up behind any candidate.
Rubio Suspended campaign
Carson Suspended campaign
Fiorina Suspended campaign
Christie Suspended campaign
Paul Suspended campaign
Huckabee Suspended campaign
Bush Suspended campaign

DEMOCRATS

Rank 2016 Power Composite Rank (PCR) % Change in PCR Candidate Notes
1 (-) 59.12 -7.05% Clinton It’s pretty obvious now that Clinton underestimated Sanders coming into primary season.  Her lead in our PCR is waning, but we estimate she has about a 92% chance of winning.
2 (-) 40.88 +6.5% Sanders Essentially tying Clinton in Iowa and handily defeating her in New Hampshire has shown that Sanders has a real chance of competing for the nomination.
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