2016 Republican Presidential Odds

By on March 8, 2012

Chris Christie 2016It’s far too early for Vegas to release any official gambling odds, but that won’t stop us from attempting to handicap the 2016 election.  Next to each of the candidates below we have listed the current odds on what we believe their chances are to win 2016 Republican presidential nomination.  Obviously, if there is a Republican victory in 2012 all bets are off.  Feel free to debate the odds we have listed or let us know which candidate you would bet on in the comments section.

Updated 1/25/2013

Candidate Odds
Chris Christie 7/1
Marco Rubio 8/1
Sarah Palin 10/1
Paul Ryan 12/1
Rand Paul 15/1
Jeb Bush 18/1
Mike Huckabee 18/1
Eric Cantor 20/1
Mike Pence 20/1
Bob McDonnell 25/1
John Kasich 28/1
John Thune 30/1
Jon Huntsman 30/1
Bobby Jindal 30/1
Luis Fortuño 35/1
Jim Demint 35/1
Scott Walker 35/1
Scott Brown 35/1
Ken Cuccinelli 40/1
Rob Portman 40/1
Rick Santorum 40/1
Tim Pawlenty 40/1
Nikki Haley 40/1
Susana Martinez 40/1
Kelly Ayote 45/1
Rick Perry 45/1
Mitch Daniels 50/1
Julian Castro 75/1
Newt Gingrich 100/1
Pat Toomey 100/1
Herman Cain 200/1
Condi Rice 500/1
Mitt Romney 500/1
Donald Trump 500/1
Field 18/1

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  • Patrick Pepper

    The intriguing thing looking at this list is all the big names on it, be they from the left, right or center of the GOP, who are not running in 2012.
    Christie, Rubio, Ryan, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Huckabee and, dare one say it, Palin – the top seven on your list, in fact. Further down, you have the likes of Pawlenty and Jindal.
    What that tells me is that, like many of their GOP predecessors in 1996 or like many of their Democratic counterparts in 1984 and to a lesser extent in 1988, they have calculated for whatever reason they will have a better chance four years hence and they have decided to bide their time.
    The poor quality of the GOP field this time does not necessarily imply a similar paucity in 2016.

    • Erika

      The GOP field was probably full of poor candidates because the economy starting turning around (at a snail’s pace) in Obama’s mid-term. Why would any solid candidate risk losing his/her shot at becoming president if the odds are iffy?

  • Josh north

    Jon Huntsman?

    • J.J. Ericsson

      Good point Josh. We have now updated the odds with Huntsman.

  • Michael

    Sarah Palin and Scott Walker are undervalued. If the establishment loses and Palin remains visible she is probably 4 to 1 and if Walker survives the recall, I guess 4 or 5 to 1.

    • River

      The only hope for Palin is that she recieves a cabinet position from Romney (assuming he wins in 2012) and does well with it. Even so, she wouldn’t be able to make a run iuntil 2020.

    • Conservative

      Palin has no chance. I think she’s overvalued. She has become to much of a diva. she still has some sway but thats dissipating quickly

  • Mattj

    I would take Nikki Haley over Scott Walker and Luis Fortuno in odds for the nomination. Also, Romney at 20/1 in 2016? I think that may be a bit generous.

  • Machiavelli

    Note that all of these odds add up to about 219% (trust me, I understand how this works and the figure is correct). I know this is how gambling usually works, but if you’re just looking at the odds as legitimate estimations of who might be the next candidate, it skews the results drastically.

    • J.J. Ericsson

      Thanks for the comment. We have updated the odds. They now add up to around 138% which is should be about correct when spreads are taken into consideration.

  • River

    I’m suprised Sen. Kelly Ayote (R-NH) isn’t on this list. She’s conservative enough to win the nomination, but not so radical that she kills herself in the primary. She’s a rising star in the Senate, and Mitt Romney even threw in her name as a VP pick.

  • Hannibal Hamlin

    I believe it is 236%

  • Jared

    You got some decent people on this, but with crazy extremists like Palin, McDonnell and Walker. You might as well put Bob Ehrlich, Mark Mead, or Rick Scott on this list

    • Conservative

      Scott has no chance. Walker I think is a real possibilty. He’s a popular govenor in a liberal state who was won 2 elections there. If its a White Male who wins it Walker, Rand, Christe. But I doubt it Brian Sandoval or Rubio are my guesses, with Nicki Haley and Kelly Ayote rounding it out

      • gbro

        I do not know why you are so concerned about who will be the Republican team in 2016. The new president will be an Independent.

    • Barack Obama

      Bob Ehrlich was a fantastic Governor in Maryland… However we need someone like Chris Christie in 2016

  • Cameron

    You might want to change the odds on Romney. I’m not saying I want him to win. I am a Obama supporter. But all Romney has to do is win this election and he will automatically have the nom. in 2016.

    • Barack Obama

      Well guess what Barack Obama is an awful President so thanks for contributing to the demise of the United States of America!!!!!!

  • david ritter

    Jim DeMint / Rand Paul

  • Bartek

    After Convention Martinez’s gone on the top.

  • Michael Howard

    I’ m quite surprised that Joe Scarborough’s name isn’t included in the field. What with his Morning Joe forum and his continued call for cooperation between the parties, he should clearly be among the top 5 potential candidates.

  • Jackson B Monterey

    The ticket will be Chris Christie / Bobby Jindal. Mark my words.

  • Jackson B Monterey

    Too bad Michael Bloomberg is getting a little too old, but he would never get the Republican nomination: He’s too moderate, too rational, too bipartisan… ;o) I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran as in independent though. It should be interesting. He should get Ralph Nader as his running mate. Just kidding… I meant Al Gore. Now seriously: he should get Tom Hanks.

  • Richard Nixon

    I’m betting we head into 2016 primary season with Christie and Rubio neck-and-neck. Rubio could be the Republican version with Obama. We’ll see what he does the next few years in the Senate, but he would appeal to more of the all-important Latino group Romney was smoked in yesterday. He’s well-liked with Tea Partiers, but his immigration ideas probably don’t sit well with them.

  • cplynn

    Im Not a republican, but i might vote for Christie.we need someone with big guns.

  • Demo

    Christie will go Independent before he even thinks about bothering to run for president… but his weight is a big factor

  • mike kotts

    He may be a real outside shot but in 2012 there were rumors that Dirk Kempthorne was looking at running. However I suspect he chose not to for 2 reasons one he would have had a real hard time beating Obama, mainly as people would have had to learn who he even was, and given his GOP opponets, he probably doubted he could edge out Romney. 2016 gives us a wide open field if he runs 2016 would be the year. Keep an eye out!

  • Conservative

    My odds
    Rubio 1/4
    Brian Sandoval 1-8
    Rand Paul 1/10
    Chris Christe 1/10 hugging the pres cost him big
    Bobby Jindal 1-10
    Kelly Ayote 1-12
    Scott Walker 1-16
    Bob Mcdonnel 1-16
    Susanna Martinez 1/20
    Rob Portman 1/33
    Ken Cuccinelli 1/100
    Field 1-20

  • Joe

    McDonnell, Christie, Jindal or Thune for me
    Rubio and Ryan are really too young and should wait til 2020, when they will have accumulated more experience
    Honestly, what we learned yesterday is that the GOP needs to distance itself away from the Tea Party and focus on winning the center, Latinos, women etc.
    If its Christie, let the Dems nominate Biden PLEASE! Imagine the debate…

    • Conservative

      I think the Gop shouldn’t distance themselves from the tea party but they need to give it a better message. Its message needs to be States rights including things they don’t like i.e. abortion, gay marriage, and weed, and cut the federal goverment. By 16′ our debt will exceed 20 trillion multiplying itself 200% in 15 years so they can win that battle

    • Conservative

      I think the Gop shouldn’t distance themselves from the tea party but they need to give it a better message. Its message needs to be States rights including things they don’t like i.e. abortion, gay marriage, and weed, and cut the federal goverment. By 16′ our debt will exceed 20 trillion multiplying itself 200% in 15 years so they can win that battle, or America is Over

    • bob mofo

      i would also love to see that

  • Davey

    I think a good Libertarian or Hispanic candidate would be good to run in 2016 otherwise the Republicans will continue to wander in the wilderness perhaps as long as the Israelites for 40 years or longer. :(

  • Matt

    From a strictly strategic point of view. With no good GOP president being a moderate (think about it), and the last two candidates who were pretty moderate getting beat (McCain and Romney), it is pretty clear that the GOP can NOT put in another moderate. They need a strong conservative candidate on low taxes (appease TEA Party), smaller government (appease Libertarians), pro-life and pro-traditional marriage (appease strongest GOP-supporters, Christians). If the candidate is weak in any of these areas, we risk one of these groups voting 3rd party.
    Now to gain groups of people who have in the past voted democrat. RACIAL MINORITIES, specifically Latinos, are not so minor anymore. The GOP has done a terrible job at reaching out to latinos, many of whom (with Catholic backgrounds) carry many of the same values we do. People of LOW INCOME, whether rightly or wrongly, tended to vote democrat due to them being turned off by Romney’s wealth. A candidate doesn’t have to be necessarily poor now, but one who has known hard times would resonate well with them. UNION WORKERS/SUPPORTERS, yes I said it. They make up a huge percentage of voters, especially in key sates of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan. We don’t necessarily need a candidate who strongly supports them, but we can’t afford one who is strongly hated by them (i.e. Christie). YOUNG voters, again we aren’t talking about justification, went heavily for Obama. A good candidate could possibly be a younger one, or at least one who really reaches out to them. Finally WOMEN voters will probably be the hardest ones to sway. How do we get their vote without forsaking one of our most fundamental values (pro-life)? I am open to suggestions about this one. I believe we need to emphasize strong, independent women (possibly emphasizing job-creation policies).
    Finally, we need a candidate that hasn’t been distorted by the media (although I strongly like Palin, this is where she would be weak). They also have to a character that has a good reputation and be hard for the media to attack.
    To the best of my knowledge, the candidate that best fits all these areas and has the best chance at winning the presidency would be MARCO RUBIO.

    • Kurious

      The suggestion that Romney or McCain lost because they weren’t conservative enough baffles me. Turnout was as high as it’s going to get – conservative voters didn’t sit out either general election, and they voted overwhelmingly for the GOP candidate. So who (what group) is it that that you think would have switched their votes from Obama to someone who was MORE conservative that McCain or Romney?

      • Matt

        Don’t get the wrong impression, I don’t believe any Obama voters, in either election, would’ve switched solely for a more consevative candidate, I’m talking about conservatives who voted third party, in which I knew many in VA and OH who did so. I should say that we can’t afford to go any more moderate, particulary on social issues, becuase the evangelicals and catholics leaving would be political suicide.

      • Josh

        The rest of America’s view on conservatives is that of the Tea Party and far-right views. To win America over, the candidate needs to be more moderate. Financial conservative, social liberal. :)

    • Logical Liberal

      “The GOP has done a terrible job at reaching out to latinos, many of whom (with Catholic backgrounds) carry many of the same values we do. ”

      Polling shows that the vast majority of Latinos are pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Not exactly conservative values. It’s not just the immigration issue that discourages Latinos from voting Republican, it’s this uneducated stereotyping of them from the right.

  • Justin D

    i think Cristie’s last minute appearance w/ Prezz Obama during Hurricane Sandy hurt his chances in the GOP

    I’m betting Susanna Martinez would make a good VP pick.

    Jeb Bush/Susanna Martinez or Marco Rubio vs. Hillary/Biden in 2016. another Bush vs. Clinton. Pull out the big guns!

    • Josh

      GOP may not like Cristie but I think America as a whole likes Cristie. I’d like to see how it pans out.

    • StalkerMuch

      HA! re: “another Bush vs. Clinton”

  • Justin D

    A Cristie/Rubio ticket would be nice. Both are young

    Seriously though, the GOP needs to soften their positions on social issues. Let the states have those problems. and they also need to court more minority voters and compromise on immigration laws. The GOP must move a little bit to the center. The future is moderate, not left or right

    • Matt

      Soften positions on social issues? And risk losing the GOP’s strongest supporters (Catholics and Evangelicals) to a third party candidate? My friend, that would be political suicide!

      • Josh

        Change “strongest” to “only”

  • Anda

    Mitt Romney 2016! He was the best republican candidate since Ronald Reagan.

    • Josh

      Did Fox tell you this?

  • jaws

    I am typically a democrat but Jeb Bush would probably get my vote if he runs

  • Sebastian

    we need Rick Perry he knows how to do it, and so does his plans unlike Mitt Romeny

    • Barack Obama

      Oh yeah Rick Perry… “Uhhhh what was I going to say?” “derp dee derrrr i dun forgot on live tv”

  • Barack Obama

    Chris Christie!!!

  • Republican 2016

    M. Rubio/ C. Rice- winning ticket

  • Bartek

    At now it is:
    1) Mike Pence,
    2) Bob McDonnell,
    3) Susana Martinez,
    4) Bobby Jindal,
    5) John Boehner.

  • Kyle

    Might as well take Petreus off the list, he won’t be running after the scandal, his political career is over before it even began.

  • yupyup

    I would love to see O’Malley/Castro vs. Bush/Huckabee in 2016! But you Republicans need to change your ways if you want to win the presidency any time soon!

    • bob mofo

      i dont think anyone with the last name castro will win anytime soon

  • Kirby Lawlis

    Petraeus? I believe the odds for him should be MUCH lower, considering his sex scandal.

  • Mike

    Please, NO BIG GOV’T REPUBLICANS, we need a Tea Party Republican like Marco Rubio, or Allen West

    • Josh

      We need Tea Party anything like we need a bullet in the head. Keep incompetence out of the White House, please. It didn’t work in 2000-2008, won’t work in 2016.

  • Christophe D

    Rick Perry is 500/1? I’ll take those odds. He’s going to run.

    • problemsolver012588

      it says 45/1

  • Christophe D

    Even money Christie will run for president in ’16. Huntsman 5/1. Rubio 2/1. Jeb 3/1. Rand Paul 7/1. Rick Santorum 2/1. I’m not saying I’d like to see any of these guys become president, Just odds talk.

  • Barry Bradford

    I would nudge Kelly Ayotte up a bit – she certaincly seems to be well positioned and interesting. Rick Perry will almost certainly run – you have him way too low. As Trump’s TV career fades, I think he will climb the list a bit. Gingrich and Petraeus are out, completely.

    If the GOP needs a superb VP candidate, look no further than Gov. Martinez.

  • StalkerMuch

    I’m interested to see how things play out for Marco Rubio. A Rubio / Huntsman ticket would be interesting.

  • Ryan Hunt

    Why is Julian Castro on this list? He’s a democrat.