The nominees for each party are all but decided (unless you disagree with our odds). So it’s time to start thinking about running mates.

Jon Stewart’s (brilliant) book, describes the Vice Presidency as a way to add someone to the ticket that is “geographically disparate” from the President. We don’t entirely disagree – except when you think back and wonder why winning Alaska was so important to John McCain…

In any event, we crunched some numbers and came up with the odds for who is most likely to be the Vice Presidential candidate for the Republican and Democratic party ticket.

Updated July 14th 2016.

WHO WILL BE VICE PRESIDENT?

REPUBLICANS
Now that Donald Trump is the Nominee
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Trump Running Mates Odds
Mike Pence 3/1
Chris Christie 4/1
John Kasich 9/2
Joni Ernst 6/1
Nikki Haley 6/1
Ben Carson 6/1
Newt Gingrich 6/1
Carly Fiorina 8/1
Susanna Martinez 10/1
Jeff Sessions 15/1
Paul Ryan 40/1
John Thune 40/1
Marco Rubio 100/1
Condoleezza Rice 100/1
Ted Cruz 100/1
Jeb Bush 500/1
DEMOCRATS
Now that Hillary Clinton is the Nominee
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Clinton Running Mates Odds
Julian Castro 2/1
Elizabeth Warren 2/1
Tim Kaine 3/1
Martin O’Malley 5/1
Sherrod Brown 8/1
Bernie Sanders 10/1
Joe Biden 15/1
Mark Warner 20/1
Tom Perez 20/1
Cory Booker 25/1
Bill Clinton 120/1
  • Randy Kaplan

    Lots of pure idiocy here. Bill Clinton can’t be the VP; he’s already exhausted two presidential terms and therefore cannot be in the line of succession at all, let alone first in line. Also, Hillary and Bill presumably share the same address; the president and vice president must reside in different states. By the same reasoning, Jeb Bush cannot be Marco Rubio’s VP; they’re both from Florida. Ben Carson also resides in Florida; he can’t be Rubio’s VP and vice versa, etc. Michael Bloomberg cannot be Hillary’s VP; they are both New Yorkers.

    Where is Carly Fiorina? Isn’t she a potential running mate for Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich?

    Paul Ryan isn’t going to leave the high-power position as Speaker of the House to the low-power, low-visibility position of VP. Never.

    The only candidate who might have Jeb Bush on his list at all is Kasich, and he’d be long odds there, too.

    While Trump and Carson have somehow formed a strange bond that has Carson endorsing Trump, Carson would be too old to succeed Trump, and why would the Republicans, with as deep and talented a bench as they have, risk a 2020 or 2024 primary season like this year’s scrum? If that means that the choice of VP is also the putative front-runner after Trump, well, theoretically and not politically, ability to serve as president is supposed to be the primary consideration in choosing a VP, so the implication is obvious – not to mention the 14 VP’s who went on to be president.

    Trump and Carson are the oldest candidates here; I wouldn’t see either of them running again, except for re-election. If Carson decided to retire after one term as Trump’s VP, he would have every other 2016 candidate, plus people who were not candidates this time around but who have great potential appeal and careers, like Nikki Haley and Tim Scott.

    Hillary won’t choose Joe Biden; for one thing, she won’t forgive his open consideration of running against her this year. For another, the Democrats simply don’t have the number of tried and tested potential presidential candidates that the Republicans do; retreading old Joe Biden – who is likely to be doddering and senile by the end of more terms as VP is simply sending that message with enormous emphasis. Not going to happen. Choosing someone the age of Bernie Sanders is also a poor strategic choice for the Democrats, who need to position SOMEBODY as the nest potential Democrat president. We tend to think of Elizabeth Warren as a younger woman, partly because her appearance is indeed far more youthful than her years, but also because of her relatively recent accession to national attention just a few years ago when she gained her Senate seat. But she is 66. Unless there is an agreement that Hillary would step down after one term and endorse Warren to succeed her, the same thing applies to Warren as to Sanders or Bloomberg – they will all be close to too old in 2020 and definitely too old in 2024.

    Despite the short bench, there are obvious omissions from the Democrat list. If Julian Castro is a potential president, why not fellow Latino Susana Martinez? Where’s Joe Manchin? Jack Markell? Andrew Cuomo? Mark Dayton? Terry McAuliffe? Chuck Schumer? Richard Blumenthal? Amy Klobuchar? Cory Booker? Kirsten Gillibrand? Sherrod Brown? Bob Casey? Jeanne Shaheen? Tom Udall?

    Must be nice to get paid for writing mindless crap like this.

    • oat327

      Well, not quite as simple as “can’t live in the same state.” An elector in the college casts two votes: one for President, and one for VP. That elector can only vote for a maximum of one candidate from their home state: meaning an elector from New York could not vote for Bloomberg as VP if they vote for Hillary as President.

      Since the margin of her victory would quite conceivably be less than New York’s ~30 electoral votes, no VP would get a majority—so the Senate would then pick the VP (and if Republicans keep it, that becomes an incredible opportunity for revenge.) So she wouldn’t do that.

      But flip side, if Donald Trump picked Peter King (two New Yorkers), they could theoretically get away with it: they’re not going to get any votes from New York electors anyway in the electoral college because New York would almost certainly vote for the Democrats.

      But still, part of a VP selection nowadays is to make a ticket “geographically diverse,” so this isn’t a really an issue anymore. It harkens back to the time when small states thought Virginia would rule all.

      You’re right that Bill is ineligible for VP, however, because he’s no longer eligible to become President.

      But yeah, I also thought this list was silly. Joe Biden will *not* be VP. He’s ripe for retirement anyway: he’s 72.

      I’m also stunned with some missing or included picks: Carly Fiorina should definitely be on here: after her endorsement of Cruz this week, I’d argue she’s actually by far his most likely pick right now—on par with Haley and Christie for Rubio and Trump, respectively, as his biggest endorsement to date. And Joe Biden is certainly not going to stick on as VP—why would he? And Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton famously dislike each other, so I doubt that would happen—Warren could’ve won the nomination and turned it down, so why would she leave the Senate for second-fiddle? Jeb Bush will not be a VP pick, both because he’d be a stupid one and because why would he take *that* job? Likewise, Nikki Haley should be removed from everyone but Rubio—you can’t pick someone who endorsed your opponent.

      Such a weird analysis.

      • Randy Kaplan

        You are correct in your elaboration on the same-state business. However, if I recall correctly, there are states who will not put an ineligible candidate on the ballot; it would be quite possible that the presidential candidate would appear alone on the ballot in those states if they had a running mate from the same state; if the states were big enough, we could have the spectacle of a VP of a different party than the president.

        It’s also a matter of perception. Trump has already raised doubts about his knowledge of and loyalty to the Constitution, and to the average well-informed person, the stricture is as I originally framed it, “can’t live in the same state.” If Trump went ahead and chose a New Yorker as a running mate, it would reinforce the notion that he is indifferent to the Constitution. Like his walking back of his notion that soldiers always have to follow his orders and he will exert “leadership” to insure that happens even when his order is illegal, there are some “one step too far” things that Trump floats that the dying throes of the Republican Establishment tell him are beyond the pale, and he listens. A choice of a running mate that is unconstitutional is a bad way to start a campaign. Some voters will recall that when Bush chose Dick Cheney, somebody remembered that they both lived in Texas. Cheney quickly moved his residence of record back to Wyoming. It did not seem all that outlandish; while born in Nebraska, Cheney grew up in Wyoming, went to university there, represented the state in Congress for over a decade, and then lived in the DC area while serving as Ford’s Chief of Staff and as Bush 41’s Secretary of Defense. He had only lived in Texas after that, when he became chairman of Halliburton. He had spent a life in politics perceived as a Wyoming man; that it required a “fix” to make that technically true again so he could run with Bush was not perceived as the kind of cynical carpetbagging that made Hillary Clinton a Senator from New York when the amount of time she spent in New York prior to her election could be measured in weeks, but more of a restoration of a status quo a priori.

        And all of the analysis is your last paragraph is excellent. Too bad that we are only impressing and educating each other; we appear to be the only ones in this thread. Oh well – thanks anyway!

    • Sara

      While you’re correct Hillary won’t pick her husband as her running mate, you’re wrong as to your assertion that he can’t be Vice President because he served two terms as President.

      The Constitution is very clear here:

      “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

      For the sake of explanation, she picks him as her running mate. She dies unexpectedly. He has no prohibition keeping him from assuming the office of the President. He wouldn’t have been elected, he would have become president through succession. Totally different ballgame.

      He could never run for re-election, he could totally assume the Presidency.

  • Teach_FL

    These guys are full of s_hit. More than likely to be Trump-Cruz 2016 since they will undoubtedly be the two with the most delegates at convention time.

    Also, they are both outsiders, for ending the illegal invasion, etc.

  • Leftcoastrocky

    Sherrod Brown as Hillary’s VP

  • Hank Murphy

    Donald Trump will announce that he has chosen for VP, his good friend Bill Clinton.

  • ahatfl

    Funny to see the pick isn’t on the list….Mike Huckabee

  • Steve Smith

    Hillary is listed twice under Bernie’s picks.

  • F. John

    You mean Tom Perez?

  • Leftcoastrocky

    Jeff Sessions — no one else will be compatible and acceptable

  • Vallejoguy

    Repub VP Rudy Giuliani
    Demo VP Gavin Newsome