Recently, the word delegates is getting kicked around more than the school yard soccer ball, and no candidate has thrown out their delegate support more than John Kasich. And while the Presidential hopeful had reassured the American public that he can win the nomination (clearly not so, given his campaign suspension), the concern about whether or not he can realistically secure the VP position should be addressed.

No Delegates, NO problem

John Kasich enters the Republican Convention with the lowest number of delegates followed by Ted Cruze. But this is really a moot point according to Kasich. In an interview with CBS news[1] on April 12, 2015 John Kasich’s stance was compared to a student entering a final with a 60 where Trump would hold an 80 or 90 score.

There is a bit of validity to Kasich’s statement. While the delegates may lean to Trump, the convention votes may sway even more to Trump if Kasich is on the ticket. This could be one situation where the forerunner’s mouth plays to the underdog John Kasich. As the delegates and the voting varies from state to state, it is quite possible that with a strong enough argument Kasich could become VP.

Republicans Want a Campaign That Can Beat Hillary

This is the main point. While we would love to believe that the main concern is the issues and the political standing of the candidates, the bottom line is that the Republicans will choose the pair that has the highest potential to beat the Democratic nominee (which by all polls and indicators will be Hillary Clinton). Looking at the track record of the three top contenders we see that:

  • Trump financially supported Hillary. This will go greatly against any future campaigning against the democratic party. It is difficult to say that you are opposed to someone when you have financially supported them, regardless of whether you did it as “business” or not.
  • John Kasich has a proven record of beating Hillary Clinton in the polls. Since the main concern for the nomination is whether or not the person can beat the democrats, it could prove to be useful that Kasich has a record for doing so.

The Realistic Probability of Kasich Becoming VP

If we look at the actual probability of Kasich becoming VP, the chances look bleak. True, there have been VPs which were 3rd or 4th in the primary polls. Yet, with the political tension that surrounds this year’s presidential hopefuls, it is more likely that Trump will choose someone in the background – someone that doesn’t carry with them the stench of the primaries.

[1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kasich-donald-trump-republican-election-2016-path-to-darkness