When it comes to election polls, the numbers can often mean very little.
It has been proven that voters are being more secluded in their voting preferences this time around which means that the data that is collected is only from a select few. Granted, the media hypes up these numbers to reflect the masses, but even such sources as the Washington Post and the New York Times have stated that the polls reflect a race that no longer exists, meaning that this close to the end, the outcome is uncertain – especially given recent events. However, if we look at the actual data as well as the opinion of an analysis who has predicted successfully who will be president since the 80’s then Trump has a very possible chance of winning.
Too Many Blank States on the Map
If you look at an Election map, you will note that there are quite a few states which are neither red or blue. Specifically, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona. Should Trump secure these votes it would put his secured votes at 247 to Hillary’s 258. If Indiana and Utah are added to these states the number goes to 259. So then it really comes down to Wisconsin and Nevada which have 16 votes.
NBC’s map shows that if Donald Trump can hold onto the Republican States and win Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and win Indiana, Utah, or Nevada, that he can secure the presidency.
CNN Metric Predicts Trump as the Winner
According to a report released on October 31,2016, CNN Money metric analysis says that Trump will win. This is based off of a formula which has been correct since the 1940s. Basically, if the market falls between August and then end of October, then the incumbent party will not see the White House. As stocks have fallen 2% during his time he metric shows Trump to be the winner. It should be noted here that the business expertise of Donald Trump has been at the forefront of his campaign. While there are some that argue that his plans will cause a further deficit to the country’s debt, the fact that his personal business has boomed should be an indicator otherwise.
Micheal Moore has argued that he believes that Donald Trump is a bit more intelligent than the media has portrayed him, and I tend to agree. Moore has expounded upon his theory that Donald Trump will win claiming that the American people may or may not agree with the Republican nominee’s ideas and promises. What will cause Donald Trump to win is the fact that the American people are tired of a failed government. Voters will side with Donald Trump on election day to send a message to the government, and according to Moore that message will be “the biggest ‘f—you’ ever recorded in human history – and it will feel good”.
The Allan Lichtman Model
Allan Lichtman has been able to predict the winners and losers of the presidential election for the past 30 years. His system is based upon the residing president and 13 keys to the white house. If a certain number of these keys are false the opposite party will win. Even since the scandals and the media hypes, Professor Allan Lichtman has stuck to his prediction. Lichtman stated that there were 5 keys which were false:
- Party Mandate – After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after he previous midterm elections.
- Incumbency – The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president
- Policy Change – The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy (in the term preceding he election)
- Foreign/Military Success – The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent Charisma – The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Since that initial analysis, another key has proven to be false. This goes to strengthen the argument that Trump will win according to this proven formula. The additional false key is:
- Third Party – There is no significant third party or independent campaign
Do Not Count on the Polls, Go Vote
Overall, both the Democrats and the Republicans can have a president in the white house. It is up to the American people, not the polls, to pick the winner, so go vote.