Demographic Doom For The GOP in 2016?


Much has been written about the Republican Party’s demographic crisis, and how it could very likely doom its chances to win back the White House in 2016. While there is some truth to this claim, the 2016 election is actually one that, at this point, looks eminently winnable for the GOP. In fact, if I were a betting man, I’d put real money on it.

First, some gloomy facts relating to the epic demographic disaster in the making for the Republicans. Number one on the list of worries for the party is that white people are going away…and fast. You see, the GOP’s base constituency has pretty much always been comprised of white folks. Now, in the past, this was a fairly good thing, since whites commanded a dominant share of the voting population. By playing to issues near and dear to traditional values voters and upper middle class suburbanites (both overwhelmingly Caucasian), Republicans were easily able to put together majority coalitions that delivered people like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush into the White House (all three of which managed at least one national landslide election victory).

But things, as they tend to do, have changed rather dramatically in the last 15 years. GOP strategists have gradually been awakening to the disturbing reality that this solid and historically reliable voter base has been shrinking, as a percentage of the voting public, at an alarming rate with every election. The chief reason for this, of course, is the rising demographic heft of minorities — especially Latinos. With waves of illegal immigration over the southern border that have been continuing unchecked for decades, coupled with fairly generous and long-standing legal immigration policies, the dominance of the white vote has now been thrown into severe jeopardy. Rapidly increasing numbers of Latino citizens are beginning to participate in the electoral process and, given that Latinos tend to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, this is decidedly bad news for the Republican Party.

Another disturbing issue for the GOP is that its voters are too old. Right now, older voters are a fairly significant portion of the overall electorate — and they tend to be more traditional, more conservative, and they like to vote Republican. But what happens when the “Baby Boomers,” which are a rather plump demographic bulge (meaning an unusually large generational cohort), finally succumb to the least horrific of the two inevitabilities of life? How will Republicans appeal to the younger, less traditional, less conservative voters that remain? Nobody yet knows.

By this point, you’re probably wondering how the GOP has a chance in hell of winning the 2016 presidential election — and why I would state that it should be favored to win. The chief reason is that voter intensity almost always trumps demographics in national elections. Most any political analyst will testify to this repeatedly tested truth. So, which side will have the most riled up and motivated voter base in 2016? Well, considering that the economy is weak and getting weaker, the middle east is falling apart, the dog ate the IRS’s homework, and conservatives will have been in the wilderness for eight years, I suspect Republicans will be as charged up to vote as they’ve ever been. They may have some extremely severe demographic issues to face over the next couple decades, but the wind is at their backs for the near future.

Can Hillary save the day for the Democrats and turn her enviable poll numbers into actual votes on election day? Perhaps she can, but only if she manages to credibly distance herself from president Obama — and if the Republicans cooperate by nominating a weak candidate (as they’ve certainly shown a unique talent for in the past, I have to say). But, overall, the political winds are blowing very Republican, at the moment, and they’re not likely to change before the 2016 election. As of today, I have to say we’re very likely to see a Republican Congress and White House in 2017. Considering the very real demographic disease the GOP suffers from, though, this could very well be its “last hurrah.”

  • William Barry

    You have not taken into account that Americans of all color and national origin are quickly awakening to the fact that the Democrat Party is controlled by far left socialist and that a wide majority of voters have traditional American values and try if she may, Hillary Clinton is no different than Barack Obama and the people know that.

    • IndependentOne

      Really? Do you have proof? Blacks did not turn out for the GOP. Where is your proof of that after all you said, “mericans of all colors…” Secondly, what is socialism? Do you even know? Is it when the government takes over everything — like the way the US takes over the entire military like government run banking system; government run health care system; government run social services; government run retirement….does all of that government stuff bother you when it’s for the US military? Are you going to start complaining about delivering your own garbage to the landfills?

      Give me 10 examples of the Democratic party being controlled by the far left socialist?

      Wow. A wide majority of voters have traditional American values? What are those? gay rights that is now basically the law of the land? Nice try! What about abortion? that’s settled law. Now, onto marijuana, which has been in several states. You’re losing this argument. But let’s move to minimum wage, which won across the board in 2014; something the GOP has long hated and is against. More states will adopt a higher minimum wage. Next gun control. It passed a referendum on the ballots it existed. There goes your gun argument.

      So your comment doesn’t stand up. Americans voted for all of these initiatives, meaning that they are for them, however, it couldn’t stop the Obama drag factor.

      The GOP has no viable candidates either. Why didn’t you speak about those traditional values, when associating WI governor Scott Walker, who’s had seven, count ’em SEVEN of his aides indicted and imprisoned? huh?

      I see you also forgot about those American traditional values in PA, where the GOP got it’s head handed to them.

      However, I digress. You all have no one who can win the White House after making it through the GOP primary clown season.

      You can’t even hold onto republicans. My wife and I were both republicans for over 30 years. We left a long time ago. So did thousands others, when the GOP made it’s huge turn to the far right radical fascism. BTW, here are 14 characteristics of fascism. Notice how each one accurately describes the GOP.

      Do you really think that Democrats want to suppress the unions and want corporations to have more power?


      These characteristics are the walking embodiment of the GOP.

      • Ava Tutor Mayes

        Must be a demo

      • doodlebug0

        You’re absolutely right. Dems will be excited to vote in 2016 because it means who will be on SCOTUS. America is becoming more liberal, not more conservative.

    • Gary Gray

      Keep Dreaming Barry,
      demographics is killing the GOP. Blacks and Hispanics will not vote republican in 2016 with all of the racist comment coming from the GOP. Remember Barack Obama won only 40% of the white vote and won the election.
      The white voting population is decreasing.

  • Gary in Gwynns Falls

    The economy is sure looking good now and likely to get even better over the next two years. If that’s an important driver for 2016 then Republicans are at a decided disadvantage. Maybe Republicans should start praying for another recession.

    • DaKardii

      You think their prayers have been answered now?

  • Martin Hauser

    Hillary has large support from Dems-if the nominee. Her trust numbers have declined in the face of non-stop barrage by Rep’s in Congress over emails. Not sure wif that strategy will work over the long, long campaign time.

    The Obama negative association assumption is supported only in the General Election, not for the Party nomination according to Gallup. I doubt Sanders will last, though he’s surging right now. Meanwhile Reps have to deal with the Trump fall-out–and whether how many of his about 20% supporters will vote for the Rep. candidate-if not him. BTW, ignore the on-line polls they mean little and are very biased; a lesson long learned by real probability based national phone polls. cf Wikipedia or any book on the Literary Digest’s Landon poll fiasco in 1936, where they predicted a win by 60-40 over FDR, only to lose by that same amount.

    Trump post-debate analysis @

  • Rocko888

    This author’s analysis is just unrealistic. The Republican’s, after Romney’s defeat, knew what they had to do and did nothing but sit on their backsides. Their numbers just don’t work.

  • Mark Bog

    Much WAS written by the liberal media in an effort to dissuade conservative voters from voting. It worked twice with Obama, but the silent majority finally woke up when a conniving DNC and a pathological liar were shoved onto the American public at a time when the Supreme Court could be loaded with liberals. Fortunately the average American is smarter than the liberal press and DNC. Kudo’s America!!!!!!