Something interesting has happened to our polling data over the past few weeks.
If you look through the historical polling data from this site, you’ll notice Trump’s lead dating back to October 2015.
Our newest polls (on the home page) are too new to start jumping to conclusions, but it’s definitely starting to paint a much different picture.
Since we started tracking polling data on this site, over 25,000 votes have been cast for the Republican and Democratic candidates. Looking at that data by week, it’s clear that Trump is in trouble – dropping from the mid-80’s to as low as 51% in recent weeks.
When you add Cruz and Kasich’s numbers, you can start to see where those votes are going. Cruz (yellow) went from the mid-teens last year to over 30% a few weeks in a row. Kasich (orange) is also grabbing some of those votes, reaching 26% the week he won the Ohio primary.
Weekly data can be skewed by primary results, debate performance, someone saying something crazy, and other events. Looking at the polling data by month, it looks even worse for Trump – dropping 26% since December.
When you include polling data from Cruz and Kasich by month, you can see just how far Cruz and Kasich have come since August. If the current trends continue, Cruz will be ahead of Trump by June.